Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Thiago Santos
Jamahal Hill
52%
48%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
79"
39
Age
Δ 7y
31
22-12
Career record
Δ 12 pp
13-4
L1
Current streak
W2
23
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 4
Santos: 53 sig / 6 TD ·
Hill: 89 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Santos
Jamahal Hill
47
Sig strikes landed
60
82
Sig strikes attempted
103
49
Total strikes landed
64
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.5
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
84s
Control time
45s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
75%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
22-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
23 fights · 14-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
L
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
Blue corner
W2
Jamahal Hill
"Sweet Dreams"
13-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—