Prelims1
Welterweight
Alex Morono vs Matthew Semelsberger
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alex Morono
Matthew Semelsberger
67%
33%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
25-13
Career record
Δ 6 pp
12-8
W3
Current streak
W2
15
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Morono: 106 sig / 0 TD ·
Semelsberger: 74 sig / 1 TD
Alex Morono
Matthew Semelsberger
70
Sig strikes landed
59
153
Sig strikes attempted
152
86
Total strikes landed
59
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
122s
Control time
29s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Alex Morono
"The Great White"
25-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
15 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
Blue corner
W2
Matthew Semelsberger
"Semi The Jedi"
12-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—