Main
Light Heavyweight
Magomed Ankalaev vs Anthony Smith
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Magomed Ankalaev
Anthony Smith
74%
26%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
22-2-1
Career record
Δ 24 pp
39-22
W8
Current streak
W3
9
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Ankalaev: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Smith: 18 sig / 0 TD
Magomed Ankalaev
Anthony Smith
56
Sig strikes landed
29
100
Sig strikes attempted
68
75
Total strikes landed
38
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.1
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
195s
Control time
24s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Magomed Ankalaev
22-2-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
Blue corner
W3
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
39-22
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
17 fights · 11-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—