Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Drew Dober
Rafael Alves
69%
31%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
30-15
Career record
Δ 3 pp
21-12
W1
Current streak
W1
18
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Dober: 62 sig / 0 TD ·
Alves: 37 sig / 1 TD
Drew Dober
Rafael Alves
37
Sig strikes landed
39
90
Sig strikes attempted
75
47
Total strikes landed
45
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
91s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Drew Dober
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
18 fights · 10-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
Blue corner
W1
Rafael Alves
"The Turn"
21-12
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—