Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexandre Pantoja
Alex Perez
74%
26%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
31-6
Career record
Δ 14 pp
26-11
W2
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Pantoja: 8 sig / 1 TD ·
Perez: 10 sig / 0 TD
Alexandre Pantoja
Alex Perez
43
Sig strikes landed
35
90
Sig strikes attempted
85
59
Total strikes landed
51
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
144s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
31-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
L
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
Blue corner
L1
Alex Perez
26-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—