Main
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis vs Sergei Pavlovich
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Sergei Pavlovich
38%
62%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
84"
38
Age
Δ 7y
30
29-14
Career record
Δ 21 pp
22-3
L1
Current streak
W3
24
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lewis: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Pavlovich: 15 sig / 0 TD
Derrick Lewis
Sergei Pavlovich
16
Sig strikes landed
30
22
Sig strikes attempted
55
24
Total strikes landed
43
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.9
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
54s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
11%
KO/TKO
82%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
29-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
24 fights · 17-7
Last 5
L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
Blue corner
W3
Sergei Pavlovich
22-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
84"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—