🏆 Title fight
Main
Flyweight
Brandon Moreno vs Kai Kara-France
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Brandon Moreno
Kai Kara-France
64%
36%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
29
Age
Δ 1y
29
23-11-2
Career record
Δ 5 pp
26-12
L1
Current streak
W3
12
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Moreno: 58 sig / 0 TD ·
Kara-France: 53 sig / 1 TD
Brandon Moreno
Kai Kara-France
66
Sig strikes landed
66
162
Sig strikes attempted
165
80
Total strikes landed
81
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
110s
Control time
60s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
23-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
12 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
D
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
Blue corner
W3
Kai Kara-France
"Don't Blink"
26-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—