Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Lu Kai
Angga
49%
51%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Kai: 36 sig / 2 TD ·
Angga: 34 sig / 0 TD
Lu Kai
Angga
35
Sig strikes landed
36
75
Sig strikes attempted
74
43
Total strikes landed
54
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
96s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Lu Kai
"The Last Gladiator"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Angga
"The Hitman"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33