Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yuma Horiuchi
Top Noi Kiwram
70%
30%
Why
68"
Reach
68"
25
Age
Δ 5y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Horiuchi: 56 sig / 2 TD ·
Kiwram: 75 sig / 0 TD
Yuma Horiuchi
Top Noi Kiwram
37
Sig strikes landed
35
78
Sig strikes attempted
73
54
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
152s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Yuma Horiuchi
"Ichiban"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
Blue corner
Top Noi Kiwram
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30