Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rinya Nakamura
Gugun Gusman
76%
24%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
27
Age
Δ 5y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Nakamura: 21 sig / 2 TD ·
Gusman: 3 sig / 0 TD
Rinya Nakamura
Gugun Gusman
37
Sig strikes landed
34
76
Sig strikes attempted
69
56
Total strikes landed
45
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
168s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rinya Nakamura
"Hybred"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner
Gugun Gusman
"The Tiger"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32