Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jeka Saragih
Pawan Maan
79%
21%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
27
Age
Δ 9y
36
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Saragih: 37 sig / 3 TD ·
Maan: 11 sig / 0 TD
Jeka Saragih
Pawan Maan
39
Sig strikes landed
33
80
Sig strikes attempted
68
58
Total strikes landed
47
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
164s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jeka Saragih
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Pawan Maan
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36