Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Shaun Etchell
Takeru Uchida
41%
59%
Why
68"
Reach
68"
29
Age
Δ 9y
20
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Etchell: 0 sig / 1 TD ·
Uchida: 0 sig / 0 TD
Shaun Etchell
Takeru Uchida
35
Sig strikes landed
37
67
Sig strikes attempted
79
53
Total strikes landed
54
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
151s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Shaun Etchell
"The Buzzsaw"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
Blue corner
Takeru Uchida
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
20