Prelims1
Bantamweight
Brian Kelleher vs Mario Bautista
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Brian Kelleher
Mario Bautista
34%
66%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
36
Age
Δ 7y
29
24-17
Career record
Δ 27 pp
18-3
L1
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Kelleher: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Bautista: 6 sig / 2 TD
Brian Kelleher
Mario Bautista
32
Sig strikes landed
48
71
Sig strikes attempted
97
42
Total strikes landed
61
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
137s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brian Kelleher
"Boom"
24-17
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Switch
Age
36
In our database
14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—
Blue corner
W1
Mario Bautista
18-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—