Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
JP Buys
Cody Durden
49%
51%
Why
67"
Reach
67"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
9-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
18-11-1
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Buys: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Durden: 23 sig / 0 TD
JP Buys
Cody Durden
24
Sig strikes landed
32
62
Sig strikes attempted
61
45
Total strikes landed
52
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
190s
Control time
173s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
JP Buys
"Young Savage"
9-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
Blue corner
L1
Cody Durden
"Custom Made"
18-11-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 1-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—