Back to UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Raulian Paiva vs Sergey Morozov

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Raulian Paiva
Sergey Morozov
71% 29%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
27
Age
Δ 6y
33
21-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
19-6
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Paiva: 63 sig / 1 TD · Morozov: 68 sig / 2 TD
Raulian Paiva
Sergey Morozov
44
Sig strikes landed
34
102
Sig strikes attempted
87
64
Total strikes landed
50
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.8
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
117s
Control time
187s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Raulian Paiva

21-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
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W UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
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W UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
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W UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
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L UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
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Blue corner
L1

Sergey Morozov

19-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
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W UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
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