Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Nate Maness
Umar Nurmagomedov
37%
63%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
31
Age
Δ 4y
26
17-3
Career record
Δ 10 pp
21-1
W3
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maness: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Nurmagomedov: 74 sig / 3 TD
Nate Maness
Umar Nurmagomedov
18
Sig strikes landed
22
45
Sig strikes attempted
45
24
Total strikes landed
34
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.9
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
16s
Control time
298s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
44%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Nate Maness
"Mayhem"
17-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
Blue corner
W2
Umar Nurmagomedov
21-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—