Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Curtis
Rodolfo Vieira
83%
17%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
33-13
Career record
Δ 1 pp
12-5
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Curtis: 109 sig / 0 TD ·
Vieira: 86 sig / 0 TD
Chris Curtis
Rodolfo Vieira
33
Sig strikes landed
26
65
Sig strikes attempted
50
47
Total strikes landed
35
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.2
Takedowns attempted
5.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
46s
Control time
176s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Chris Curtis
"Action-Man"
33-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Rodolfo Vieira
12-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
L
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—