Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Thiago Moises
Christos Giagos
65%
35%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
27
Age
Δ 5y
32
19-11
Career record
Δ 3 pp
20-13
L2
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Moises: 3 sig / 1 TD ·
Giagos: 2 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Moises
Christos Giagos
33
Sig strikes landed
33
79
Sig strikes attempted
82
48
Total strikes landed
50
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.5
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
112s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Thiago Moises
19-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
Blue corner
L1
Christos Giagos
"The Spartan"
20-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
W
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
L
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—