Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Parisian
Alan Baudot
70%
30%
Why
79"
Reach
79"
33
Age
Δ 1y
34
15-9
Career record
Δ 4 pp
8-4
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Parisian: 42 sig / 3 TD ·
Baudot: 49 sig / 0 TD
Josh Parisian
Alan Baudot
44
Sig strikes landed
43
84
Sig strikes attempted
87
71
Total strikes landed
52
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
167s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Josh Parisian
15-9
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
Blue corner
L2
Alan Baudot
"The Black Samourai"
8-4
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—