Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Neil Magny
Shavkat Rakhmonov
39%
61%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
35
Age
Δ 7y
28
32-15
Career record
Δ 32 pp
20-0
W2
Current streak
W3
26
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Magny: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Rakhmonov: 19 sig / 2 TD
Neil Magny
Shavkat Rakhmonov
24
Sig strikes landed
32
44
Sig strikes attempted
71
41
Total strikes landed
63
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
54s
Control time
291s
Method
Decision
14%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
69%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
32-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
26 fights · 19-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
Blue corner
W3
Shavkat Rakhmonov
"Nomad"
20-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—