Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Arman Tsarukyan
Mateusz Gamrot
66%
34%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
26
Age
Δ 6y
32
24-3
Career record
Δ 2 pp
27-4
W5
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Tsarukyan: 95 sig / 1 TD ·
Gamrot: 81 sig / 6 TD
Arman Tsarukyan
Mateusz Gamrot
36
Sig strikes landed
30
81
Sig strikes attempted
72
73
Total strikes landed
42
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
5.2
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
257s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Arman Tsarukyan
"Ahalkalakets"
24-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
Blue corner
W3
Mateusz Gamrot
"Gamer"
27-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—