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Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Carlos Ulberg vs Tafon Nchukwi

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Carlos Ulberg
Tafon Nchukwi
76% 24%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
16-1
Career record
Δ 40 pp
6-5
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ulberg: 15 sig / 0 TD · Nchukwi: 3 sig / 0 TD
Carlos Ulberg
Tafon Nchukwi
55
Sig strikes landed
53
130
Sig strikes attempted
134
78
Total strikes landed
57
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
81s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Carlos Ulberg

"Black Jag"
16-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
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L UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
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Blue corner
L1

Tafon Nchukwi

"Da Don"
6-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
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W UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
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L UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
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