Prelims1
Welterweight
Ian Machado Garry vs Gabe Green
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ian Machado Garry
Gabe Green
78%
22%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
25
Age
Δ 5y
29
18-1
Career record
Δ 23 pp
13-5
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Machado Garry: 116 sig / 1 TD ·
Green: 90 sig / 1 TD
Ian Machado Garry
Gabe Green
67
Sig strikes landed
41
167
Sig strikes attempted
109
77
Total strikes landed
40
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.2
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
113s
Control time
13s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ian Machado Garry
"The Future"
18-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Gabe Green
"Gifted"
13-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—