Prelims1
Middleweight
Brad Tavares vs Dricus Du Plessis
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brad Tavares
Dricus Du Plessis
16%
84%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
34
Age
Δ 6y
28
22-13
Career record
Δ 26 pp
24-3
W2
Current streak
W2
20
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tavares: 82 sig / 0 TD ·
Du Plessis: 113 sig / 0 TD
Brad Tavares
Dricus Du Plessis
39
Sig strikes landed
47
86
Sig strikes attempted
103
44
Total strikes landed
60
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
69s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Brad Tavares
22-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
20 fights · 14-6
Last 5
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
W2
Dricus Du Plessis
"Stillknocks"
24-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—