Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jim Miller
Donald Cerrone
60%
40%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
39
Age
Δ 0y
39
40-19
Career record
Δ 1 pp
36-18
W2
Current streak
L5
34
UFC fights in our DB
37
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Miller: 24 sig / 1 TD ·
Cerrone: 21 sig / 0 TD
Jim Miller
Donald Cerrone
30
Sig strikes landed
26
46
Sig strikes attempted
49
40
Total strikes landed
38
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.5
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
110s
Control time
60s
Method
Decision
13%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
69%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jim Miller
"A-10"
40-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
34 fights · 19-14
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
Blue corner
L5
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36-18
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
37 fights · 23-13
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—