Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Robbie Lawler
Bryan Barberena
69%
31%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
40
Age
Δ 7y
33
31-16
Career record
Δ 5 pp
19-12
W1
Current streak
W2
16
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Lawler: 81 sig / 0 TD ·
Barberena: 147 sig / 0 TD
Robbie Lawler
Bryan Barberena
77
Sig strikes landed
92
154
Sig strikes attempted
195
91
Total strikes landed
100
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
74s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
31-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
Blue corner
W2
Bryan Barberena
"Bam Bam"
19-12
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—