Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sean Strickland
Alex Pereira
87%
13%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
79"
31
Age
Δ 4y
35
32-7
Career record
Δ 0 pp
14-3
W6
Current streak
W2
15
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Strickland: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Pereira: 25 sig / 0 TD
Sean Strickland
Alex Pereira
62
Sig strikes landed
57
132
Sig strikes attempted
138
76
Total strikes landed
61
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
95s
Control time
20s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Sean Strickland
32-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
15 fights · 12-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
Blue corner
W2
Alex Pereira
"Poatan"
14-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—