Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Pedro Munhoz
Sean O'Malley
25%
75%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 7"
72"
36
Age
Δ 8y
28
20-11
Career record
Δ 22 pp
20-3
L2
Current streak
W3
17
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 2
Munhoz: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
O'Malley: 25 sig / 0 TD
Pedro Munhoz
Sean O'Malley
62
Sig strikes landed
89
147
Sig strikes attempted
172
73
Total strikes landed
96
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.0
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.70
50s
Control time
42s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Pedro Munhoz
"The Young Punisher"
20-11
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
17 fights · 9-7
Last 5
L
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
Blue corner
W3
Sean O'Malley
"Suga"
20-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—