Prelims1
Featherweight
Nathaniel Wood vs Charles Rosa
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nathaniel Wood
Charles Rosa
87%
13%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
29
Age
Δ 7y
36
23-7
Career record
Δ 16 pp
14-9
L1
Current streak
L2
6
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Wood: 97 sig / 1 TD ·
Rosa: 51 sig / 2 TD
Nathaniel Wood
Charles Rosa
62
Sig strikes landed
52
116
Sig strikes attempted
130
88
Total strikes landed
60
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
128s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Nathaniel Wood
"The Last Kingsman"
23-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
Blue corner
L2
Charles Rosa
"Boston Strong"
14-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
36
In our database
12 fights · 5-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—