Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jai Herbert
Kyle Nelson
49%
51%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 6"
71"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
14-7-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-8-1
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Herbert: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Nelson: 41 sig / 0 TD
Jai Herbert
Kyle Nelson
33
Sig strikes landed
31
69
Sig strikes attempted
63
46
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
109s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jai Herbert
"Black Country Banger"
14-7-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Kyle Nelson
"The Monster"
17-8-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
L
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—