Main
Lightweight
Paddy Pimblett vs Jordan Leavitt
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paddy Pimblett
Jordan Leavitt
78%
22%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
28
Age
Δ 0y
27
24-4
Career record
Δ 3 pp
14-3
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Pimblett: 17 sig / 1 TD ·
Leavitt: 16 sig / 3 TD
Paddy Pimblett
Jordan Leavitt
22
Sig strikes landed
11
45
Sig strikes attempted
28
38
Total strikes landed
17
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
108s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Paddy Pimblett
"The Baddy"
24-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
Blue corner
W2
Jordan Leavitt
"The Monkey King"
14-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—