Main
Light Heavyweight
Nikita Krylov vs Alexander Gustafsson
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nikita Krylov
Alexander Gustafsson
83%
17%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
79"
30
Age
Δ 5y
36
31-12
Career record
Δ 5 pp
18-9
L2
Current streak
L3
15
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Krylov: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Gustafsson: 5 sig / 0 TD
Nikita Krylov
Alexander Gustafsson
40
Sig strikes landed
40
85
Sig strikes attempted
84
58
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
123s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Nikita Krylov
"The Miner"
31-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
15 fights · 8-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
Blue corner
L3
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
18-9
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
16 fights · 9-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—