Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Adrian Yanez
Tony Kelley
79%
21%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
29
Age
Δ 7y
35
18-6-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
9-3
W4
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Yanez: 35 sig / 0 TD ·
Kelley: 20 sig / 0 TD
Adrian Yanez
Tony Kelley
66
Sig strikes landed
52
152
Sig strikes attempted
117
75
Total strikes landed
51
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
68s
Control time
46s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Adrian Yanez
18-6-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
Blue corner
W2
Tony Kelley
"Primetime"
9-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—