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Main Middleweight

Julian Marquez vs Gregory Rodrigues

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Julian Marquez
Gregory Rodrigues
31% 69%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
10-6
Career record
Δ 11 pp
19-7
W2
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Marquez: 13 sig / 0 TD · Rodrigues: 49 sig / 0 TD
Julian Marquez
Gregory Rodrigues
44
Sig strikes landed
55
112
Sig strikes attempted
122
53
Total strikes landed
72
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
65s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Julian Marquez

"The Cuban Missile Crisis"
10-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
W UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
L The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
W UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
Blue corner
L1

Gregory Rodrigues

"Robocop"
19-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
W UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
W UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…