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Main Lightweight

Damir Ismagulov vs Guram Kutateladze

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Damir Ismagulov
Guram Kutateladze
86% 14%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
25-3
Career record
Δ 16 pp
14-5
W4
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ismagulov: 79 sig / 0 TD · Kutateladze: 78 sig / 1 TD
Damir Ismagulov
Guram Kutateladze
49
Sig strikes landed
38
127
Sig strikes attempted
97
77
Total strikes landed
45
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.1
7.3
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
204s
Control time
13s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
4%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W4

Damir Ismagulov

"Qazaq"
25-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
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Blue corner
W1

Guram Kutateladze

"Georgian Viking"
14-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…