Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joaquin Buckley
Albert Duraev
68%
32%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
22-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
17-5
W2
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Buckley: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Duraev: 10 sig / 2 TD
Joaquin Buckley
Albert Duraev
46
Sig strikes landed
43
113
Sig strikes attempted
96
60
Total strikes landed
64
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.1
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
82s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Joaquin Buckley
"New Mansa"
22-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
Blue corner
W1
Albert Duraev
17-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—