Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Tim Means
Kevin Holland
47%
53%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 6"
81"
38
Age
Δ 9y
30
34-17-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
30-15
W3
Current streak
W1
24
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Means: 21 sig / 2 TD ·
Holland: 36 sig / 0 TD
Tim Means
Kevin Holland
55
Sig strikes landed
63
97
Sig strikes attempted
136
70
Total strikes landed
74
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
113s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
34-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
24 fights · 14-9
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
Blue corner
W1
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
14 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—