Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Calvin Kattar
Josh Emmett
65%
35%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
34
Age
Δ 3y
37
24-10
Career record
Δ 3 pp
20-7
W1
Current streak
W4
10
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Kattar: 130 sig / 0 TD ·
Emmett: 107 sig / 0 TD
Calvin Kattar
Josh Emmett
73
Sig strikes landed
72
194
Sig strikes attempted
169
85
Total strikes landed
78
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
21s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Calvin Kattar
24-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
Blue corner
W4
Josh Emmett
20-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—