Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jared Vanderaa
Chase Sherman
54%
46%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
30
Age
Δ 2y
33
12-11
Career record
Δ 3 pp
16-13
L3
Current streak
L4
5
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Vanderaa: 109 sig / 0 TD ·
Sherman: 137 sig / 0 TD
Jared Vanderaa
Chase Sherman
65
Sig strikes landed
63
142
Sig strikes attempted
131
70
Total strikes landed
76
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
82s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Jared Vanderaa
12-11
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
Blue corner
L4
Chase Sherman
"The Vanilla Gorilla"
16-13
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 3-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—