Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Caio Borralho
Armen Petrosyan
87%
13%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
19-2
Career record
Δ 24 pp
10-5
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Borralho: 12 sig / 4 TD ·
Petrosyan: 31 sig / 0 TD
Caio Borralho
Armen Petrosyan
43
Sig strikes landed
26
75
Sig strikes attempted
31
54
Total strikes landed
33
3.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
8.5
Takedowns attempted
-0.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
250s
Control time
21s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Caio Borralho
"The Natural"
19-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
Blue corner
W1
Armen Petrosyan
"Superman"
10-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—