Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafael Dos Anjos
Rafael Fiziev
67%
33%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
38
Age
Δ 8y
29
33-17
Career record
Δ 8 pp
14-5
W2
Current streak
W5
28
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 5
Dos Anjos: 54 sig / 2 TD ·
Fiziev: 64 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Dos Anjos
Rafael Fiziev
54
Sig strikes landed
62
117
Sig strikes attempted
136
79
Total strikes landed
84
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
8.0
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
194s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Rafael Dos Anjos
33-17
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
28 fights · 19-9
Last 5
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W5
Rafael Fiziev
"Ataman"
14-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—