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Prelims1 Lightweight

Niklas Stolze vs Benoit Saint Denis

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Niklas Stolze
Benoit Saint Denis
33% 67%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
12-7
Career record
Δ 18 pp
17-4
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Stolze: 11 sig / 0 TD · Saint Denis: 8 sig / 3 TD
Niklas Stolze
Benoit Saint Denis
42
Sig strikes landed
38
91
Sig strikes attempted
74
51
Total strikes landed
68
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
83s
Control time
170s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
26%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Niklas Stolze

"Green Mask"
12-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
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L UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
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Blue corner
L1

Benoit Saint Denis

"God of War"
17-4 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
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