Back to UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Felice Herrig vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Felice Herrig
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
53% 47%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 1"
64"
38
Age
Δ 1y
37
14-11
Career record
Δ 3 pp
16-11
L3
Current streak
L5
9
UFC fights in our DB
12

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Herrig: 55 sig / 0 TD · Kowalkiewicz: 82 sig / 0 TD
Felice Herrig
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
60
Sig strikes landed
65
142
Sig strikes attempted
143
83
Total strikes landed
90
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
207s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Felice Herrig

"Lil Bulldog"
14-11
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
L UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
L UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
Blue corner
L5

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

16-11
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 12 fights · 5-7
Last 5
L UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
L UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
L UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
L UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
L UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—