Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ryan Spann
Ion Cutelaba
65%
35%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
31
Age
Δ 2y
28
24-12
Career record
Δ 3 pp
21-11-1
L1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Spann: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Cutelaba: 2 sig / 3 TD
Ryan Spann
Ion Cutelaba
28
Sig strikes landed
29
70
Sig strikes attempted
56
39
Total strikes landed
44
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
91s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
24-12
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
Blue corner
W1
Ion Cutelaba
"The Hulk"
21-11-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
11 fights · 5-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
L
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—