Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Davey Grant
Louis Smolka
55%
45%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
36
Age
Δ 6y
31
18-9
Career record
Δ 4 pp
17-10
L2
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Grant: 81 sig / 0 TD ·
Smolka: 71 sig / 0 TD
Davey Grant
Louis Smolka
56
Sig strikes landed
59
117
Sig strikes attempted
129
72
Total strikes landed
72
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
119s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Davey Grant
"Dangerous"
18-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
Blue corner
L1
Louis Smolka
"Da Last Samurai"
17-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
16 fights · 8-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—