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Main Women's Flyweight

Katlyn Cerminara vs Amanda Ribas

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Katlyn Cerminara
Amanda Ribas
62% 38%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
33
Age
Δ 5y
29
19-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
14-7
W3
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Cerminara: 63 sig / 0 TD · Ribas: 55 sig / 3 TD
Katlyn Cerminara
Amanda Ribas
75
Sig strikes landed
59
180
Sig strikes attempted
152
96
Total strikes landed
82
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
77s
Control time
189s
Method
Decision
81%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Katlyn Cerminara

"Blonde Fighter"
19-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
W UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
W UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
L UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
W UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
Blue corner
W1

Amanda Ribas

14-7
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
L UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
W UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
W UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
W UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…