Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jailton Almeida
Parker Porter
88%
12%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
31
Age
Δ 6y
37
23-5
Career record
Δ 20 pp
15-9
W1
Current streak
W3
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Almeida: 18 sig / 1 TD ·
Porter: 0 sig / 0 TD
Jailton Almeida
Parker Porter
42
Sig strikes landed
15
91
Sig strikes attempted
44
61
Total strikes landed
35
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.1
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
130s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jailton Almeida
"Malhadinho"
23-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
W3
Parker Porter
15-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—