Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joseph Holmes
Alen Amedovski
74%
26%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
27
Age
Δ 7y
34
8-5
Career record
Δ 0 pp
8-5
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Holmes: 16 sig / 1 TD ·
Amedovski: 1 sig / 0 TD
Joseph Holmes
Alen Amedovski
36
Sig strikes landed
24
79
Sig strikes attempted
54
62
Total strikes landed
39
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.1
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
133s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joseph Holmes
"Uglyman Joe"
8-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
Blue corner
L2
Alen Amedovski
8-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—