🏆 Title fight
Main
Women's Strawweight
Rose Namajunas vs Carla Esparza
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
·Footprint Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rose Namajunas
Carla Esparza
58%
42%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 2"
63"
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
16-8
Career record
Δ 6 pp
21-8
W3
Current streak
W5
12
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Namajunas: 37 sig / 1 TD ·
Esparza: 30 sig / 2 TD
Rose Namajunas
Carla Esparza
60
Sig strikes landed
47
148
Sig strikes attempted
100
81
Total strikes landed
75
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.5
Takedowns attempted
6.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
99s
Control time
200s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Rose Namajunas
"Thug"
16-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
Blue corner
W5
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
21-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—