Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Charles Oliveira
Justin Gaethje
69%
31%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
33
Age
Δ 1y
34
38-11
Career record
Δ 7 pp
28-5
W8
Current streak
W1
29
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Oliveira: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Gaethje: 21 sig / 0 TD
Charles Oliveira
Justin Gaethje
38
Sig strikes landed
46
71
Sig strikes attempted
87
44
Total strikes landed
58
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.1
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
88s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
9%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
75%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
29 fights · 20-8
Last 5
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
28-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
L
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—